Edition of October 12, 2026 · built from 5,014 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Before Nov 1, 2026 at 75% this morning. · ▲ 36 points overnight · settles in 88 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in New York City on Oct 12, 2026? New York City | News | 11% ▼ 57 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Louisiana 05 House General Election be above 120000? Above 120K | Politics | 32% ▼ 60 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will Israel Katz be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Surging Israel Katz | Politics | 48% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US Ambassador to Greece before Nov 1, 2026? Surging Before Nov 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 75% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 55 |
| Will Watch Dis by Yung Miami have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 10K | Culture | 50% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Google Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 18.1% Above 18.1% | Everything Else | 45% ▲ 34 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Punjab wins Punjab | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.72 USD/Lbs on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Surging Above $6.72 | Commodities | 73% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will Godzilla Minus Zero be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? Godzilla Minus Zero | Culture | 94% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 54 |
| Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee Championship Series winner: Milwaukee wins Surging Milwaukee | MLB | 56% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Australia Redbacks wins South Australia Redbacks | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 66% — |
| Andreya Glushkova wins Andreya Glushkova | Tennis | in 3 hours | 22% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 58% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 1 |
| LA Rams wins by over 3.5 points? LA Rams wins by over 3.5 points | NFL | later today | 48% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 59% — |
| Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 14% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics? 37.6 to 37.8 | Politics | in 4 days | 24% — |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.399 USD/MMBtu on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3.399 | Commodities | in 4 days | 50% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $103.99 | Commodities | in 4 days | 40% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 17000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Above 17K | Culture | in 6 days | 76% ▲ 46 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Pick You Up by Sheryl Crow have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Above 2K | Culture | in 6 days | 16% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Maldives wins Maldives · | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.399 USD/MMBtu on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3.399 · settles in 4 days | Commodities | 50% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster · settles today | Everything Else | 58% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $103.99 · settles in 4 days | Commodities | 40% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 20 days | MLB | 34% ▼ 8 7d: ▲ 2 |
| BUF Bills wins by over 3.5 points? BUF Bills wins by over 3.5 points · settles today | NFL | 28% — |
| Will La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? La Bola Negra · settles in 84 days | Culture | 27% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 59 days | Economy | 74% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 99 · settles in 7 days | Culture | 23% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Andreya Glushkova wins Andreya Glushkova · settles today | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3%? Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% · settles in 378 days | Politics | 21% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 81 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 758 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 86% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 81 days | Politics | 14% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 81 days | Economy | 13% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 262 days | NBA | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 171 days | Culture | 12% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026? Above 15 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 5 |
| Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026? Above 10 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Below: Limited Series be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 12, 2026? Below: Limited Series · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will East of Eden: Limited Series be #2 US Netflix Show on Oct 12, 2026? East of Eden: Limited Series · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Full Game: Over 28.5 points scored Over 28.5 points · settles in 5 days | College | 95.0% — |
| BUF Bills over 3.5 points scored BUF Bills over 3.5 points · settles today | NFL | 98.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7779.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,780 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $84.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $91.99 · settles in 4 days | Commodities | 94.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30599.99 at the end of Oct 12, 2026 at 10am EDT? 30,600 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |