Edition of October 19, 2026 · built from 4,337 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Education at 16% this morning. · ▼ 42 points overnight · settles in 14 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| What will Melania Trump say during Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026? Super Intelligence | Politics | 26% ▼ 60 |
| Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Oct 18, 2026? At least 3 | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 64 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026? Surging Education | Politics | 16% ▼ 42 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes | Everything Else | 21% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Will Klarna Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 115 ? Above 115 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 47 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.60 USD/Lbs on October 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Surging Above $6.60 | Commodities | 68% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 23 |
| World's best restaurant: Kjolle Kjolle | Everything Else | 44% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026? Midterm | Everything Else | 63% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Will Donald Trump issue any announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming the next White House Press Secretary (excluding acting/interim) before Nov 6, 2026? Before Nov 6, 2026 | Politics | 34% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? Ossoff by 3-6 | Politics | 6% ▼ 27 7d: ▼ 1 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,170.63 | Commodities | within the hour | 46% — |
| Elias Ymer wins Elias Ymer | Tennis | within the hour | 56% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 42 | Culture | in 5 hours | 12% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 56 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 19, 2026? Above $98.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 36% ▼ 21 7d: ▲ 2 |
| magic wins magic | Everything Else | later today | 40% — |
| San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points? San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points | NFL | later today | 50% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 11% — |
| Will Tyler Cameron and their partner be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Oct 21, 2026? Tyler Cameron | Everything Else | in 2 days | 20% ▲ 3 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.4 and 38.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.4 to 38.6 | Politics | in 4 days | 21% ▲ 1 |
| Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 78% — |
| Will Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs by Zach Bryan have above 5000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week? Above 5K | Culture | in 6 days | 52% — |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes | Politics | in 7 days | 66% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points? San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points · settles today | NFL | 50% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points? James Talarico, 2+ pts · settles in 380 days | Politics | 49% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will "Housewife" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100? Rank 1 to 2 · settles in 12 days | Culture | 48% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,170.63 · settles today | Commodities | 46% — |
| Elias Ymer wins Elias Ymer · settles today | Tennis | 56% — |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 13 days | MLB | 32% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 52 days | Economy | 76% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 22% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 79% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Tyler Cameron and their partner be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Oct 21, 2026? Tyler Cameron · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 20% ▲ 3 |
| Will Marine Le Pen finish 1st in the first round of the next French presidential election? Marine Le Pen · settles in 194 days | Politics | 82% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 751 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 74 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary before Jan 20, 2029? Scott Jennings · settles in 831 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 42 · settles today | Culture | 12% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 56 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 10 days | Economy | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.60 USD/Lbs on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.60 · settles today | Commodities | 88% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 224 days | Champions League | 10% — |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026? Yes · settles in 105 days | Culture | 10% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles today | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 35 7d: ▼ 1 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 98 · settles today | Culture | 93.5% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? Above 10 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026? Above 15 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 6 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.58 USD/Lbs on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.58 · settles today | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.56 USD/Lbs on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.56 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 24 7d: ▼ 14 |
| South Dakota St. wins South Dakota St. · settles in 6 days | College | 98.5% — |
| Adrien Gobat wins Adrien Gobat · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Oct 19, 2026? 4.86% or above · settles today | Economy | 93.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% on Oct 19, 2026? 4.98% or above · settles today | Economy | 95.5% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 1 |