Edition of October 21, 2026 · built from 1,802 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 44% this morning. · ▼ 10 points overnight · settles in 72 days
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Las Vegas on Oct 21, 2026? Las Vegas | News | 62% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4 be #1 on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers - Top 100 products by revenue list for Oct 20 - Oct 27, 2026? Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4 | Everything Else | 97% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <84° in Phoenix on Oct 21, 2026? 83° or below | News | 26% ▲ 24 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave all political office in Israel before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027 | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 20 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >68° in Philadelphia on Oct 21, 2026? 69° or above | News | 28% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 44% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >49° in Philadelphia on Oct 21, 2026? 50° or above | News | 8% ▼ 16 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° in New York on Oct 21, 2026? 59° to 60° | News | 2% ▼ 11 |
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 44% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Jacksonville wins Jacksonville | NFL | 76% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasidit Samrej wins Kasidit Samrej | Tennis | within the hour | 30% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,119.60 | Commodities | within the hour | 44% — |
| Jeremy Gschwendtner wins Jeremy Gschwendtner | Tennis | in 3 hours | 38% — |
| magic wins magic | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 46% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 21, 2026? Above $98.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 62% — |
| Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-05? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 56% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| New Zealand wins New Zealand | Everything Else | tomorrow | 40% — |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 18% ▼ 52 7d: ▼ 66 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 69% ▲ 1 |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 31% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 67 | Culture | in 5 days | 36% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million | Culture | in 6 days | 84% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| magic wins magic · settles today | Everything Else | 46% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,119.60 · settles today | Commodities | 44% — |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election? Trump +18 or more · settles in 145 days | Politics | 57% — |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 11 days | MLB | 37% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 67 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 36% — |
| Karmine Corp wins Karmine Corp · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 34% — |
| Lorenzo Giustino wins Lorenzo Giustino · | Tennis | 32% — |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich wins Aliaksandra Sasnovich · | Tennis | 30% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 97.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 21, 2026? Above $97.99 · settles today | Commodities | 74% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Ohio's 9th District House election be at least 1 percentage points? Merrin, 1+ pts · settles in 378 days | Politics | 24% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 80% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 20% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 50 days | Economy | 20% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 749 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million · settles in 6 days | Culture | 84% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 72 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 253 days | Culture | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 8 days | Economy | 88% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 222 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? Yes · settles today | Politics | 98.4% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Sofia Martianova wins Sofia Martianova · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Brute wins map 1 Brute · settles today | Everything Else | 93.0% — |
| Chiu / HSUN LIN wins Chiu / HSUN LIN · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will it rain in Los Angeles on Oct 21, 2026? Los Angeles · settles tomorrow | News | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Broadway attendance above 220,000? Above 220,000 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 21, 2026? Above $95.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 21, 2026? Above $96.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29249.99 at the end of Oct 21, 2026 at 10am EDT? 29,250 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29039.99 at the end of Oct 21, 2026 at 3pm EDT? 29,040 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.5% — |