Edition of November 1, 2026 · built from 1,798 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 4:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Ethanol at 22% this morning. · ▼ 34 points overnight · settles in 13 days
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| What will Scott Bessent say during Face the Nation originally scheduled for November 1, 2026? Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 72 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.1700? Above 4.1700 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 29 |
| What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Salina, Kansas originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 and rescheduled for November 1, 2026? Ethanol | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 34 |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Nov 1, 2026? Minneapolis | News | 2% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Beijing Ducks wins Beijing Ducks | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 26 |
| What will Josh Shapiro say during Face the Nation originally scheduled for November 1, 2026? Tariff | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 16 |
| Will Diesel Price on November 30, 2026 be above $6.40? Above $6.40 | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Eibar To Advance Eibar advances | Everything Else | 59% ▼ 17 7d: ▼ 17 |
| What will Bernie Sanders say during Face the Nation originally scheduled for November 1, 2026? Data Center | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 11 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <60° in New York on Nov 1, 2026? 59° or below | News | 42% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Dart wins Harriet Dart | Tennis | in 2 hours | 10% — |
| Yurii Dzhavakian wins Yurii Dzhavakian | Tennis | in 5 hours | 50% — |
| Amed wins by more than 1.5 goals? Amed wins by more than 1.5 goals | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 52% — |
| Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.7 on Nov 1, 2026? Above 38.7% | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 50% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 3884 USD/t.oz on November 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $3884 | Commodities | tomorrow | 54% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112.50 USD/Bbl on November 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $112.50 | Commodities | tomorrow | 48% — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 11% — |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 48% — 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 42% — |
| Will KV Kortrijk win on 2026-10-23? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 39% ▼ 15 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will the President's approval rating be above 39.0 according to RealClearPolitics? Above 39.0 | Politics | in 5 days | 30% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.7 on Nov 1, 2026? Above 38.7% · settles today | Everything Else | 50% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112.50 USD/Bbl on November 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $112.50 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 48% — |
| Coleman Wong wins Coleman Wong · | Tennis | 54% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 3884 USD/t.oz on November 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $3884 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 54% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3.5 percentage points? James Talarico, 3.5+ pts · settles in 367 days | Politics | 41% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 38% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Team Yandex wins Team Yandex · settles today | Everything Else | 68% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 0.5 percentage points? Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts · settles in 367 days | Politics | 30% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 88 days | Economy | 72% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 242 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 61 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 738 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 61 days | Economy | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 211 days | Champions League | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 738 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Harriet Dart wins Harriet Dart · settles today | Tennis | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 94.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 94.7% — |
| Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 93.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 96.8% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas wins Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Beatris Spasova wins Beatris Spasova · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will it rain in Albuquerque on Nov 1, 2026? Albuquerque · settles tomorrow | News | 94.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will it rain in West Palm Beach on Nov 1, 2026? West Palm Beach · settles tomorrow | News | 96.5% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.2% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 94.0% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.18% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 94.0% — |