Edition of July 22, 2026 · built from 6,109 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put China at 52% this morning. · ▲ 32 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Buu Nygren win the 2026 Navajo Nation presidential election? Surging Buu Nygren | Politics | 8% ▼ 85 7d: ▲ 31 |
| What will Starbucks Corporation say during their next earnings call? Smart Queue / SmartQ | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 54 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 450000 total deliveries in Q3 2026? Surging Above 450000 | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 67 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Jul 24, 2026? 4.61% or above | Economy | 95% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 55 |
| Will the Sacramento Pro Basketball team win at least 25 games in the 2026-27 regular season? Surging 25+ wins | NBA | 83% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 58 |
| What will Reddit, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Algorithm | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.160? Above 4.160 | Everything Else | 58% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 800m after Issuance and in 2026? Men's 800m | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 44 |
| What will GE Vernova Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging China | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 32 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Rain in Chicago in Jul 2026? Above 5 inches | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 54 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 9 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 70 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 62% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 19 days | Culture | 62% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 104 days | Politics | 64% — 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 102 days | MLB | 32% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 20 days | Politics | 70% ▼ 12 7d: ▲ 63 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 162 days | Everything Else | 30% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 3M Open? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 4 days | Golf | 26% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 839 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 839 days | Everything Else | 20% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 22, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles today | Commodities | 80% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will Tudor Batin win the Batin vs Ovcharenko: M25+H Bacau Round of 32 match? Tudor Batin · settles today | Tennis | 18% — |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 162 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 7 days | Economy | 86% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 137 days | Sports | 86% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 7 days | Economy | 13% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 839 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Melody Morris be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 24, 2026? Melody Morris · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 84.00 and 84.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 24, 2026? $84.00 to $84.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 12% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Yes · settles in 6 days | Politics | 99.1% — 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France? Tadej Pogacar · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 50 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will Maria Golovina win the Obradovic vs Golovina: W15 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 32 match? Maria Golovina · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 22, 2026? Above $83.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will Helena Stevic win the Golubovic vs Stevic: W15 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 32 match? Helena Stevic · settles today | Tennis | 98.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 22, 2026? Above $81.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week? Above 15K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.15% on Jul 22, 2026? 4.16% or above · settles today | Economy | 97.5% — |