Edition of July 29, 2026 · built from 6,831 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put SpaceX at 78% this morning. · ▲ 44 points overnight · settles in 155 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? Surging Above 5 lowinches | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 56 7d: ▲ 22 |
| What will The Wendy's Company say during their next earnings call? Minions | Everything Else | 19% ▼ 55 7d: ▼ 52 |
| What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging SpaceX | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 70000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 70K | Culture | 92% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 13 |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? Target Plus | Everything Else | 79% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >72° in Minneapolis on Jul 29, 2026? 73° or above | News | 5% ▼ 44 |
| What will Reddit, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging Headwind | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Best Chinese AI Company this month? Surging Alibaba | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 24 |
| What will eBay say during their next earnings call? Guaranteed Fit | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.08? Surging Above 4.08 | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 25 7d: ▼ 30 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafalentino Ali Da Costa win the Rathi vs Da Costa: M15 Bali Round of 32 match? Rafalentino Ali Da Costa | Tennis | in 1 hours | 60% — |
| Will Ivan Gretskiy win the Philippov vs Gretskiy: M15 Astana Round of 32 match? Ivan Gretskiy | Tennis | in 3 hours | 54% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 29, 2026? Above $82.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 44% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 64% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 days | 34% — |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes | Culture | in 2 days | 50% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.08? Above 4.08 | Everything Else | in 2 days | 64% ▲ 25 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics? 40.5 to 40.7 | Politics | in 2 days | 38% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be below 77.00 USD/Bbl on Jul 31, 2026? Below $77.00 | Commodities | in 2 days | 15% ▼ 20 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Above 5 inches | Everything Else | in 4 days | 40% ▼ 15 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? Yes | Culture | in 5 days | 83% — |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 92 | Culture | in 5 days | 14% ▲ 13 7d: ▼ 28 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 2 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Will Alex de Minaur win the de Minaur vs Tsitsipas: Round Of 32 match? Alex de Minaur · | Tennis | 57% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 97 days | Politics | 62% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Adam Walton win the Svrcina vs Walton: Round Of 32 match? Adam Walton · | Tennis | 36% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 95 days | MLB | 30% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 13 days | Politics | 74% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Good Afternoon at his Jul 2026 press conference? Good Afternoon · settles in 15 days | Economy | 24% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura? Cruz Azul · settles in 308 days | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 155 days | Everything Else | 24% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · | Economy | 21% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · | Economy | 79% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 832 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 832 days | Everything Else | 19% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 155 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? Yes · settles in 5 days | Culture | 83% — |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 130 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be below 77.00 USD/Bbl on Jul 31, 2026? Below $77.00 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 15% ▼ 20 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 92 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 14% ▲ 13 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 8, 2026 Choosin' Texas · settles in 14 days | Culture | 88% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 832 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alessandro Bellifemine win the Kukasian vs Bellifemine: M15 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 32 match? Alessandro Bellifemine · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 97.4% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 97.8% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou win the Alexandrescou vs Rojas: M25 Pitesti Round of 32 match? Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 83 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Who will win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Marcye Scott · settles today | Politics | 93.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 29, 2026? Above $77.49 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 29, 2026? Above $78.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.0% — |
| Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 45000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 45K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.0% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.15% on Jul 29, 2026? 4.16% or above · settles today | Economy | 96.5% — |