Today’s Number
Will Diesel Price on November 9, 2026 be above $6.24?
Market-consensus odds put Above $6.24 at 64% this morning. · ▲ 49 points overnight · settles in 13 days
Edition of November 3, 2026
Edition of November 3, 2026 · built from 2,757 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 4:00 AM ET.
64%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Diesel Price on November 9, 2026 be above $6.24? Above $6.24 | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 49 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.0600? Above 4.0600 | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will it rain in Denver on Nov 3, 2026? Denver | News | 66% ▲ 34 |
| Will the average U.S. price of a McDonald's Egg McMuffin for November 2026 be at least $4.77? At least $4.77 | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the average U.S. price of a Dunkin' medium cold brew for November 2026 be at least $4.46? At least $4.46 | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <55° in Denver on Nov 3, 2026? 54° or below | News | 46% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| James Madison wins James Madison | College | 84% ▲ 25 |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4100 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? 4,100 or above | Commodities | 23% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Miami (OH) wins Miami (OH) | College | 76% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Lithuania wins Lithuania | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 17 7d: ▼ 17 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,897.00 | Commodities | within the hour | 56% — |
| FaZe wins FaZe | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 40% — |
| Yuquan Jin wins Yuquan Jin | Tennis | in 2 hours | 24% — |
| Daniil Sarksian wins Daniil Sarksian | Tennis | in 2 hours | 48% — |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-11-03? Yes | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 48% — |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-11-03? Yes | Everything Else | in 11 hours | 56% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28469.99 at the end of Nov 3, 2026 at 4pm EST? 28,470 or above | Markets | later today | 12% — |
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming | Everything Else | later today | 54% — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes | Politics | later today | 76% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | later today | 52% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 8 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,897.00 · settles today | Commodities | 56% — |
| FaZe wins FaZe · settles today | Everything Else | 40% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2.5 percentage points? James Talarico, 2.5+ pts · settles in 365 days | Politics | 60% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points? El-Sayed, 3.5+ pts · settles in 365 days | Politics | 62% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 34% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 11 |
| TheMongolz wins TheMongolz · | Everything Else | 74% — |
| Yuquan Jin wins Yuquan Jin · settles today | Tennis | 24% — |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 240 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Maria Timofeeva wins Maria Timofeeva · | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 59 days | Everything Else | 18% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 736 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 229 days | Champions League | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28469.99 at the end of Nov 3, 2026 at 4pm EST? 28,470 or above · settles today | Markets | 12% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 736 days | Politics | 12% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 240 days | Culture | 11% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 94.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes · settles today | Politics | 95.2% — |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles today | Politics | 97.2% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Xinxin Yao wins Xinxin Yao · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Beijing Ducks wins Beijing Ducks · settles today | Everything Else | 97.0% — |
| Louis Van Herck wins Louis Van Herck · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will it rain in San Antonio on Nov 3, 2026? San Antonio · settles tomorrow | News | 94.5% — |
| Will it rain in San Francisco on Nov 3, 2026? San Francisco · settles tomorrow | News | 95.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 3, 2026? Above $93.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 3, 2026? Above $92.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% — |