Today’s Number
TCU wins
Market-consensus odds put TCU at 55% this morning. · ▼ 26 points overnight · settles in 7 days · on unusually heavy volume
- Buyers and sellers are 73 points apart — a thin market, so read this number as a range, not a point.
Edition of October 28, 2026
Edition of October 28, 2026 · built from 3,085 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
55%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| DeForest Buckner's next team before Dec 1, 2026: San Francisco San Francisco | NFL | 90% ▲ 44 |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Urban Outfitters, Inc. report above 845 total urbn stores in Q3 2027? Above 845 | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 93% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will it rain in Miami on Oct 28, 2026? Miami | News | 46% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No one | Politics | 60% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 6.1% | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 36 |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 37.3% Above 37.3% | Everything Else | 38% ▼ 26 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.22? Above 4.22 | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2400? Surging Above 4.2400 | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 16 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,053.07 | Commodities | within the hour | 34% — |
| B8 wins B8 | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 48% — |
| TheMongolz wins TheMongolz | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 55% — |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28? Yes | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 56% — |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-28? Yes | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 72% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 101.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 28, 2026? Above $101.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 52% — |
| Milwaukee wins Milwaukee | MLB | later today | 58% — |
| Full Game: over 40.5 points scored? Over 40.5 points | NFL | in 5 days | 48% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| The Mongoose Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 | Culture | in 5 days | 76% — |
| Will The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026? The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1 | Culture | in 6 days | 56% — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | in 7 days | 74% — |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes | Politics | in 7 days | 63% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 101.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 28, 2026? Above $101.49 · settles today | Commodities | 52% — |
| B8 wins B8 · settles today | Everything Else | 48% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 45% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will Rick Jackson's Georgia Governor margin be larger than Joe Lombardo's Nevada Governor margin in the November 3, 2026 general election? Rick Jackson · settles in 41 days | Politics | 59% — |
| Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No one · settles in 364 days | Politics | 60% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich wins Aliaksandra Sasnovich · | Tennis | 36% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,053.07 · settles today | Commodities | 34% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 92 days | Economy | 33% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| The Mongoose Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 76% — |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes · settles in 43 days | Economy | 76% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 246 days | NBA | 22% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 65 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 742 days | Everything Else | 17% — |
| Beatris Spasova wins Beatris Spasova · settles today | Tennis | 84% — |
| Will Damascus Road be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 7, 2026 Damascus Road · settles in 14 days | Culture | 16% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 246 days | Culture | 13% ▲ 2 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 215 days | Champions League | 12% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Medipolis SC Jena wins Medipolis SC Jena · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 12% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 742 days | Politics | 11% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles today | Economy | 95.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 95.8% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles in 7 days | Politics | 95.7% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? Yes · settles in 7 days | Politics | 96.7% — |
| The Mongoose Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 5 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.0% — |
| Kamilla Bartone wins Kamilla Bartone · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Full Game: Over 199.5 points scored Over 199.5 points · settles today | NBA | 93.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Oct 28, 2026? 4.88% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 28, 2026? Above $98.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |