Edition of October 26, 2026 · built from 3,231 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 3.9% at 57% this morning. · ▼ 37 points overnight · settles tomorrow · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| PJM AEP-Dayton Hub average power price above $150/MWh, Week 44? Above $150/MWh | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 47 7d: ▼ 47 |
| Moonshot AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 3.9% Surging Above 3.9% | Everything Else | 57% ▼ 37 7d: ▲ 8 |
| PJM Western Hub average power price above $150/MWh, Week 44? Above $150/MWh | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Will Luh Leakyz Vol. 1 by Yeat have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 15K | Culture | 92% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Michigan St. wins Michigan St. | College | 98% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 43 |
| ERCOT North Hub average power price above $40/MWh, Week 44? Above $40/MWh | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Texas Tech wins Texas Tech | College | 98% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Verizon Communications Inc report Above 100 thousand postpaid phone net additions in Q3 2026? Above 100 thousand | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 30 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Klarna Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 160 ? Above 160 | Everything Else | 46% ▲ 40 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Eastern Illinois wins Eastern Illinois | College | 2% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,017.00 | Commodities | within the hour | 57% — |
| Jangjun Kim wins Jangjun Kim | Tennis | in 1 hours | 46% — |
| Nemiga wins map 1 Nemiga | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 55% — |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.030 USD/MMBtu on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3.030 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 46% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Tampa Bay first 5 innings winner Tampa Bay | MLB | later today | 50% — |
| Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 26, 2026? Nobody Wants This: Season 3 | Culture | tomorrow | 74% — |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 72% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 24% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| India A wins India A | Everything Else | in 3 days | 33% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.6 and 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.6 to 38.8 | Politics | in 4 days | 24% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 73% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 14% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,017.00 · settles today | Commodities | 57% — |
| Nikola Bartunkova wins Nikola Bartunkova · | Tennis | 64% — |
| India A wins India A · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 33% — |
| Will Nathan Fielder win Best Director at the Oscars? Nathan Fielder · settles in 431 days | Culture | 32% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 26, 2026? Nobody Wants This: Season 3 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 74% — |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes · settles in 45 days | Economy | 76% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 45 days | Economy | 20% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 744 days | Politics | 20% ▼ 1 |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 4 percentage points? Ken Paxton, 4+ pts · settles in 373 days | Politics | 20% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 67 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 248 days | NBA | 18% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 248 days | Culture | 17% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 744 days | Everything Else | 15% ▼ 2 |
| Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026? Above 2.9% · settles in 38 days | Economy | 14% ▼ 15 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the margin of victory for Roy Cooper in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be between 12% and 14%? Roy Cooper, 12-14% · settles in 373 days | Politics | 13% ▼ 1 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 217 days | Champions League | 12% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Before Nov 16, 2026 · settles in 157 days | Everything Else | 12% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 744 days | Politics | 11% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Paula Badosa wins Paula Badosa · settles today | Tennis | 90% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Economy | 94.5% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 98.1% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 94.0% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 97.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 26, 2026? Above $97.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.85% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.48 USD/Lbs on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.48 · settles today | Commodities | 93.0% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Ekaterina Yashina wins Ekaterina Yashina · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Oct 26, 2026? Minneapolis · settles tomorrow | News | 97.5% — |
| Over 1.5 runs scored Over 1.5 runs scored · settles today | MLB | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be #2 Global Netflix Show on Oct 26, 2026? Nobody Wants This: Season 3 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 95.5% — |