| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 12% |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 40% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 13% |
| Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Godzilla Minus Zero Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Above 87 | 78% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 28% |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Politics | Likely | 74% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Politics | Likely | 65% |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 38% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 90% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 31% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 94% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 99.4% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | Politics | Unlikely | 8% |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Politics | Unlikely | 4% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | Sports | Unlikely | 14% |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 58% |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 93% |
| Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Sports | Unlikely | 0.3% |
| Who will be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | Bundesliga | Wide open | 0.8% |
| Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.7% |
| Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | Benjamin Netanyahu | 28% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Politics | Pedro Sánchez | 13% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Politics | Wide open | 3% |
| Who will be the top artist for 2026? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Culture | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 96% |
| Who will be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Unlikely | 1.3% |
| Who will be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.2% |
| Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Politics | Wide open | 0.2% |
| Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Everything Else | Wide open | 5% |
| Who will win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | Everything Else | Wide open | 2% |
| Who will win the 2026 NFL MVP? | NFL | Unlikely | 29% |
| Who will win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | Premier League | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | Everything Else | Real Madrid | 26% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | NBA | Wide open | 0.2% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | Champions League | Arsenal | 14% |
| Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | Politics | Javier Milei | 46% |
| Who will win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | Everything Else | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14% |
| Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? | NBA | Wide open | 0.4% |
| Who will win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | NFL | Unlikely | 0.8% |
| Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | NFL | Unlikely | 4% |
| Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Everything Else | Jon Ossoff | 24% |
| Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Everything Else | J.D. Vance | 31% |
| Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | JD Vance | 17% |
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Above 91 | 92% |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.2% |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.3% |
| Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 17% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 58% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 52% |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 46% |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 15% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 9% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 50% |
| Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.8% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 19% |
| Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.0% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.2% |
| Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 97% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.7% |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.2% |
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 20% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | Economy | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.2% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 80% |
| Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.5% |
| Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 34% |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 48% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | Economy | Likely | 78% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.9% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |