| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 24% |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Brazil unemployment rate in August 2026? | Economy | Above 5.2% | 72% |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 12% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 16% |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 18% |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Economy | Unlikely | 6% |
| GA Eagles wins? | Everything Else | Likely | 78% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026? | Everything Else | Above 8 | 90% |
| Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 34% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 28% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 18% |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 25% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 10% |
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| New pandemic in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 24% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Everything Else | Likely | 88% |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 20% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 70% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 64% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 40% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 7% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 6% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 0.9% |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | Everything Else | Likely | 95% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 49% |
| What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention? | Everything Else | Democrat | 96% |
| Where will Folarin Balogun go next? | Everything Else | AS Monaco | 82% |
| Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Sports | Mercedes | 96% |
| Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Everything Else | Apple | 13% |
| Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | Politics | Abiy Ahmed | 97% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Politics | Eugen Tomac | 19% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Politics | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Culture | Wide open | 6% |
| Who will be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win Heisman Trophy? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Who will win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Politics | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.8% |
| Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Everything Else | Wide open | 1.4% |
| Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Politics | Likely | 64% |
| Who will win the 2026 Men's US Open? | Tennis | Alexander Zverev | 24% |
| Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Everything Else | Nashville SC | 18% |
| Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | Everything Else | Wide open | 4% |
| Who will win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 NL East title? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Who will win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.7% |
| Who will win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | Tennis | Wide open | 7% |
| Who will win the 2026 World Series? | MLB | Wide open | 7% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | Premier League | Wide open | 0.7% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | Everything Else | Barcelona | 66% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | NBA | Wide open | 2% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | Champions League | Bayern Munich | 14% |
| Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? | NBA | Philadelphia 76ers | 11% |
| Who will win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | NFL | Wide open | 0.5% |
| Who will win the 2027 NFL league championship? | NFL | the Los Angeles Rams | 16% |
| Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | NFL | Wide open | 7% |
| Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Everything Else | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 19% |
| Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Everything Else | J.D. Vance | 50% |
| Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | the Democrats | 60% |
| Who will win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | Everything Else | Likely | 60% |
| Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 34% |
| Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Politics | Coalition Avenir Québec | 26% |
| Who will win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Politics | Likely | 98% |
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Everything Else | Wide open | 8% |
| Who will win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | Politics | Likely | 82% |
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Above 75 | 98% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Will Aaron Donald win the Comeback Player of the Year? | NFL | Unlikely | 7% |
| Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 57% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 26% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 27% |
| Will Augusto Cury finish 5th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 56% |
| Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.1% |
| Will BP be acquired before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Cindy Coyne be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in Rhode Island? | Politics | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Connor Wood win Dancing with the Stars Season 35? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 26% |
| Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.7% |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | Economy | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will James Harden play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | MLB | Unlikely | 0.5% |
| Will Jenna Dewan win Dancing with the Stars Season 35? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 16% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.5% |
| Will Julia Stiles win Dancing with the Stars Season 35? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 23% |
| Will Kevin Gausman strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? | MLB | Unlikely | 0.5% |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | NBA | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.4% |
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | Everything Else | Likely | 86% |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.5% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 13% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.7% |
| Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.5% |
| Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will more than 900,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? | Tennis | Unlikely | 34% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 98% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.3% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 25% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Unlikely | 26% |
| Will Rockstar Games release GTA VI Online to the public before 2027? | Culture | Unlikely | 16% |
| Will Ronald Acuña Jr. hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? | MLB | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 42% |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 9% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Ryan Flaherty be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 13% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.9% |
| Will Sarah Jane Nader win Dancing with the Stars Season 35? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 40% |
| Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.2% |
| Will Sue AnderBois be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in Rhode Island? | Politics | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | Economy | Likely | 62% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Economy | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | Economy | Toss-up | 50% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | Economy | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%? | Politics | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 62% |
| Will there be at least 45 wide film releases in Q4 2026? | Culture | Likely | 92% |
| Will there be at least 50 wide film releases in Q4 2026? | Culture | Likely | 90% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Economy | Toss-up | 50% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz after himself? | Everything Else | Wide open | 2% |
| Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.8% |